Numerator has released its latest inflation insights and shopping behavior index to measure the impact of rising prices on consumer behavior.
Weekly data updates include price and trip tracking based on verified consumer purchase data and consumer sentiment based on an ongoing survey of more than 10,000 consumers. Overall, grocery prices continued to rise in June with beverages seeing the largest impact. While spending remained elevated, optimism is at an all-time low as consumers switch to club and dollar stores to save.
In the four weeks ending July 3, non-seasonal candy saw an inflation rate of 16%, while chips experienced an inflation rate of 26%, Numerator reported.
“As the cost of everyday goods continues to rise, consumers are shopping around to find value,” said Eric Belcher, CEO, Numerator. “Many of these shifts, including high-income households trading down to dollar stores, are unexpected. With a faster, more holistic view of the impact of inflation across channels, products, and consumer segments, Numerator helps brands capitalize on these rapidly changing behaviors.”
Inflation Price Pulse:
Grocery inflation reached a high of +15.1% — more than doubling since the beginning of the year. For the four-week period ending July 3, grocery prices were up 15.1% versus YA, up from 7.4% at the beginning of the year. .
Beverages are the most impacted department in the grocery sector. Among the top-selling categories in the grocery sector, five Beverage categories rank in the top 10 for highest inflation rates.
Household items’ rate of inflation has slowed. Prices for household items were up 11.3% versus YA, down 5.9%age points compared to mid-June, potentially impacted by early Prime Day deals in this sector.
Household categories most impacted include: Facial Tissue (+32%), Plastic Wrap & Foil (+27%), Brooms, Mops & Brushes (+27%), Household Batteries (+27%) and Disposable Tableware (+23%).
Paper & Plastic products are the most impacted department in the household sector. Among the top-selling categories in the household sector, five Paper & Plastic categories rank in the top 10 for highest inflation rates.
Online continues to be the most impacted channel. Online grocery prices grew 21.5% vs YA for the four-week period ending July 3. Dollar is the only other channel keeping pace, with inflation rates of 19.8%.
Inflation Shopping Impact:
Spending remains elevated, but there are signs of softening demand. Overall spending is elevated with sales up 13% versus YA. However, early signs indicate softening demand with units per trip at a 2022 low of -13%.
Consumers are seeking value and switching to Club stores. Across all income levels, more households are shopping club stores with traffic up 9% versus. YA.
Dollar stores are booming with high income shoppers switching to save. Dollar store sales are up 14% versus YA as shoppers increase both trips and spend per trip (+4% and +9%, respectively). High income shoppers show the largest increase in spend at +33%.